Jamie Dimon warns against predicting what's next for the economy - and slams central banks for 'dead wrong' forecasts

Jamie Dimon warned against predicting what's next for the economy.

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• JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon said central banks' outlook from 18 months ago was "100% dead wrong."
• He cautioned against making definitive economic forecasts, and said to prepare for a range of outcomes.
• Dimon is doubtful that central banks and governments can manage the coming turmoil.

Jamie Dimon, the billionaire chief executive of JPMorgan Chase and one of Wall Street's most-watched commentators, said forecasters have missed the mark on their economic outlooks, and there's still reason for caution moving forward. 

In a panel at the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the banker called out governments and central banks, and said some more humility should be in order. 

"Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I've never seen anyone call it," Dimon said, per multiple media reports.

"I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong," Dimon added. "I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year."

Dimon also noted it likely doesn't "make a piece of difference" whether the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates by another 25 basis points or not. 

The Fed has already made 11 hikes since early 2022, and CME's FedWatch Tool shows markets expect 97% odds of no adjustment at the November meeting, and 29% odds of a quarter-point hike in December. 

"Fiscal spending is more than it's ever been in peacetime and there's this omnipotent feeling that central banks and governments can manage through all this stuff," Dimon said. "I am cautious about what will happen next year."

Last month, Dimon similarly sounded the alarm on the resilient US economy, warning particularly of rampant government spending and the potential for the economy to abruptly slow.  

"We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Those are really big buts. To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you got to have a booming environment for years is a huge mistake," Dimon said at an industry conference. 

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